Readers of articles in this site know that we favor the identification of a bull market in its early stages as an excellent method for building serious wealth. While we rarely write about particular bull markets, we do occasionally comment on particularly strong trends, as we have done in the past on the gold and precious metals market. The uranium bull market is one such trend, and taking a prudent, but significant, position should help bolster your portfolio and net worth.
As you are well aware, the commodities market (copper, nickel, zinc and so forth), ended a long bear run around 2000-2001 and entered into what many call as a multi-year uptrend in prices. These long term bull markets tend to be interrupted by the usual cyclical downturns, which serve to shake off speculators and weak hands. Gold, silver and other precious metals joined in this run, as well as energy sector plays such as oil and natural gas. Energy sector commodities get a lot of attention as they directly and immediately hurt the consumer pocketbooks, compared with other commodities, where the intermediate companies often absorb some of the blow.
Uranium Sneaks Up
Uranium, being a commodity, and an energy play, also joined the fun - and after a long bear market of its own, began an incredible uptrend and the spot price of uranium has climbed from around $8/pound 5 years ago to a new reported high of $72/pound! That is a 9X rise that would sound alarm bells if the same thing were to happen to the price of oil this quickly (actually the latter has happened if you compare the low in the price of oil of around $10/barrel in late 90s to over $70/barrel in 2006). So why is uranium spiking up? The following fundamentals underpin this rise:
- The long-term low price of uranium has resulted in a shortage of mining projects. This means, nuclear power stations are now making up the shortfall through consuming above-ground surplus inventory, which will soon end.
- Energy security consciousness is pushing more nations towards nuclear power as a viable option. More the reactors, more the demand for fuel.
- Anti-nuclear sentiment has prevented major countries like Australia from coming online soon enough to alleviate pressures. These sentiments are slowly shifting, and one should see more mining companies come online as prices shoot to stratosphere.
- Enriched uranium (usually of weapons grade) provides a lot more bang for the buck, than mined uranium. It is possible that as the enriched uranium stock decreases and more of mined uranium is used; the projected demand may further rise.
Is the Uranium Bull Run Over?
Uranium has seen a spectacular rise - however, the fuel continues to be a small part of the overall cost of the operation of a reactor. This implies that there is more room for the price to grow even as power stations bid against each other for ensuring future supplies. Currently, most of the contracts are being written out for supplies for 2008-9, and some of the newer production is not expected to come online until 2009-10. Thus, shorter term, uranium price will likely continue its straight ride up. However, if the overall sentiment towards nuclear energy continues to become favorable, and more nations choose the nuclear route as their most secure option, the demand for uranium may continue to outstrip supply well into the early part of the next decade. That will keep the bull market in a strong uptrend to the end of this decade.
Thus clearly, it is a situation that needs close monitoring. Some of the mining company owners expect the long term price of uranium to settle around $65/pound after a short-term run up. However, if the demand continues to build up, then we all might be surprised to find the long-term price having a floor in the $100/pound+ range.
How to play the Uranium Bull Market?
Playing the uranium bull market needs prudence and patience. As we write this, there are over 400 mining companies that have come into being - most of them in response to this screaming bull market. It is difficult to find a lot of useful information on them, other than self-promoting press releases. This uranium site tracks an index of uranium mining firms. It is best to do your own research through the Internet and by writing to these companies to determine if they are:
- In the prospecting phase
- Near production phase
- In production phase
and to find their plans for the coming years. You will notice in general that companies that are close to production are the most sensitive to price fluctuations in uranium (which of late has been all to the upside). Of course, companies that are prospecting in promising areas tend to be cheap, but have a lot of upside potential.
On top of identifying and investing in leaders of the pack, ensure that you move your money around as leadership and relative strength of the stocks changes. This is mainly because the market will quickly discount future profits for a mining firm and price the company appropriately once it is into production. Further upside in such firms is limited to fluctuations in the spot price of uranium and depends largely on their bringing new projects online. Smaller firms that come online for the first time thus hold far greater potential for making large profits - but of course they come with the risk that any new venture comes with. We would highly recommend your using some investment newsletters or advisors who are experts in this field to guide you.
Risks in this Market
It could, furthermore, happen that uranium does not find continued favor with nations, who may seek alternate energy sources for self-sustainability. For example, perhaps solar energy takes off or newer energy technologies such as fuel-cells reach self-sustainable status.
Even with these risks, it appears that, at least over the next year or two, the uranium bull market will remain alive and well.
Resources
A few of the top Internet resources to research this bull market:
Fresh spot prices of uranium can be learnt from these sites every Friday evening and Monday morning!